# Auditor Challenge — cash-recovery-engine

A hostile external auditor is attempting to invalidate this outcome. Every major
claim must survive the following interrogation, answered from objective evidence.

- **Standard:** IRS_AUDITOR (assume bad faith; trust nothing without evidence)
- **Certification state:** PROOF_INCOMPLETE
- **Evidence Grade:** B
- **Trust Score:** 80/100
- **Verification:** PASS (13/13)

## Global challenge questions

1. **What evidence supports this?** Every metric maps to `proof/CLAIM_EVIDENCE.json` → `proof/evidence/verification-report.json`, produced by `node verify.mjs` and traced in `proof/EXECUTION_TRACE.json`.
2. **What assumptions exist?** See `proof/LIMITATIONS.md` and `proof/EXECUTIVE_EVIDENCE.md`.
3. **How could this fail?** Verification passes today; failure modes are the disclosed seams below.
4. **Could another engineer reproduce it?** Yes — `proof/REPRODUCE.md` lists exact commands; checksums in `proof/CHECKSUMS.json` pin every input.
5. **What would invalidate this conclusion?** A failing check, a checksum mismatch (`node tools/forge-proof-verify.mjs --outcome delivery-package/cash-recovery-engine`), or any claim without a source in CLAIM_EVIDENCE.json.
6. **Has anything been simulated?** Yes — results use a synthetic/internal benchmark (DISCLOSED_SEAM).
7. **Were any shortcuts taken?** 6 disclosed seam(s); 0 draft doc(s); 0 unguarded marketing phrase(s).
8. **Would this survive expert review?** Only with the disclosed seams explicitly accepted.

## Per-claim challenge

- **Logistic learner recovers a separable signal (acc > 0.95)** = `train acc=1` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **AUC helper returns 1.0 for a perfectly ranked set** = `auc=1` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **Potential outcomes monotone: y1 >= y0 for every invoice** = `0 violations / 2000` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **Capacity-constrained worklist never exceeds the hours budget** = `used 59.92h <= cap 60h, 59 invoices` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **[synthetic] Self-cure propensity ranks better than chance (AUC > 0.70)** = `AUC=0.8173` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **[synthetic] Self-cure probabilities are calibrated (ECE < 0.05)** = `ECE=0.018, Brier=0.1588` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **[synthetic] Engine beats best simple baseline by >40% cash recovered** = `engine=$1,665,446 vs best baseline=$733,603 (skill 127.0%)` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **[synthetic] Engine recovers >=2x the cash of FIFO at equal hours** = `2.94x FIFO` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **[synthetic] Engine captures >35% of the movable-cash ceiling within budget** = `48.7% of $3,417,896 using 200h` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **Reproducible: same seeds -> identical AUC** = `0.8173 == 0.8173` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **Trains the uplift model end-to-end in < 8 s** = `134 ms on 4000 historical invoices` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._
- **Engine emits a complete, budget-feasible worklist schema** = `rows=58 fields✓=true hours=80<=80 cash>=0=true` — source: `verification-report.json#/checks`; status: SUPPORTED. _Could another engineer reproduce this number from node verify.mjs? Yes, deterministically._

## Open objections (must be resolved or disclosed before CERTIFIED)

- Customer outcome is a disclosed seam: No real customer AR ledger is present; company-specific cash recovery is not produced (synthetic benchmark only). (blocks CERTIFIED by design).

## Disclosed seams (auditor-acknowledged limitations)

- DISCLOSED_SEAM: No real customer AR ledger is present in this workspace; all reported numbers are measured on a synthetic, behaviourally-motivated benchmark (src/synth.mjs), not on any company's receivables.
- DISCLOSED_SEAM: Individual treatment uplift is measurable here only because the synthetic world exposes BOTH potential outcomes (y0 and y1). On real data you can never observe both for the same invoice, so production uplift is an estimate validated by holdout/A-B test, not a measured per-invoice truth.
- SIMULATED: Collector effort hours and days-to-pay are modelled parameters, not timed observations.
- PROJECTION: "Cash accelerated" and "collection-days reduction" are model projections over this ledger, not realized, audited cash movements.
- Official evaluation path present but inactive (no data/official/ inputs this run).
- Customer outcome: No real customer AR ledger is present; company-specific cash recovery is not produced (synthetic benchmark only).

_Generated by `tools/forge-proof.mjs` at 2026-06-25T22:57:32.893Z. The Proof Layer has final authority over this challenge; it may not be edited to suppress objections._
